Polymarket investigates suspicious Israel election bets
The platform is examining dozens of newly created wallets after bets on Netanyahu and Likud turned profitable once exit polls shifted the market, Bloomberg reported.
- Traders on Polymarket favor former Israel Defense Forces chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot over incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu following Tuesday's election, despite polls showing neither candidate has a clear path to a 61-seat majority in the 120-member Knesset.
- Polymarket's investigative team is scrutinizing dozens of newly created wallets that placed election bets, amid concerns about potential manipulation. Bloomberg identified upward of 600 wallets that were opened on a single day, all backing either a Netanyahu victory or Likud finishing first.
- Moran Ofir, a professor at the Haifa University Faculty of Law, described the market as "fragile and highly susceptible to manipulation." A study by Ofir, Columbia Law School professor Joshua Mitts, and Dan Zimmermann found 29% of bets against Netanyahu held by only seven accounts.
- Shana Bautista, Polymarket's head of global intelligence, told NPR her 16-person team is monitoring wagers, noting the company has investigated "dozens" of cases. Several accounts withdrew above $100,000 in combined profits.
- Federal prosecutors recently charged soldier Gannon Ken Van Dyke for allegedly exploiting confidential military details to profit on Polymarket. Experts warn prediction markets, once viewed as reflecting "wisdom of the crowd," are increasingly vulnerable to powerful actors seeking to shape public perception.
23 Articles
23 Articles
Jerusalem Post
WTVBPolymarket probes suspicious trades around Israel election, Bloomberg News reports
Polymarket is investigating suspicious bets placed by hundreds of new accounts on Netanyahu's election performance, with some traders reportedly cashing out more than $100,000.
Polymarket Investigating Suspicious Trades on Israeli Election
Polymarket is investigating a string of well-timed and profitable trades on the Israeli election this week in the latest case to raise concerns about potential insider trading on prediction markets.
$73 MILLION GAMBLE: Betting Markets Misread Netanyahu’s Strength In Israeli Election
Israel’s election results triggered a dramatic reversal in online prediction markets overnight, as tens of millions of dollars in wagers shifted sharply away from Gadi Eisenkot and toward Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. More than $73 million was traded on election-related markets on Polymarket, one of the world’s largest prediction platforms, making Israel’s election one of […]
Israel election sends $70 million in Polymarket bets into turmoil
Hours before voting, bettors gave Eisenkot a 56% chance of becoming prime minister against Netanyahu's 27.5%, only to reverse course after exit polls; their strong bet on Yashar! winning the most Knesset seats also faltered as coalition talks loom
Polymarket Traders See Netanyahu and Eisenkot in Near Deadlock for Israeli Premiership
JERUSALEM (VINnews) — Traders on the Polymarket prediction market platform gave Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu a narrow edge over former military chief Gadi Eisenkot in the race to become Israel’s next prime minister, according to prices recorded on election day. Netanyahu stood at 44 percent, with Eisenkot at 42.7 percent. Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett […]
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