OPEC Cuts Demand Forecast Again as the Oil Market Starts Looking Past Hormuz
OPEC said geopolitical disruptions and recovering Gulf output are reshaping its outlook as OPEC+ June production averaged 36.28 million barrels per day, up about 3 million from May.
- On Monday, Jul 13, 2026, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries lowered its global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 to 780,000 barrels per day. This marks the third straight downward revision for the year.
- The closure of the Strait of Hormuz following the start of the Iran war lasted for months. This disruption effectively curbed millions of barrels of Middle East output, impacting global supply.
- Gulf members began resuming production, helping the Organization increase output. This figure rose about 3 million from The May, as production recovered from the Iran war.
- For 2027, OPEC expects oil demand to rise by 1.94 million. This represents an increase of 210,000 from the previous projection, signaling a shift in the group's long-term outlook.
- While OPEC sees a smaller impact from the Iran war than the International Energy Agency, it notes that potential moderations in geopolitical tensions may provide upside for global growth in 2026.
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The waters of the oil market continue to revolt. Although the reopening of the Strait of Ormuz has somewhat alleviated the transit of oil tankers and, with this, the price of the barrel of crude oil, the truth is that the situation remains unstable and the quotation has again touched the $80 barrier. Trump administration’s flocks and the fragility of the ceasefire with the Tehran regime complicate the forecasts even of the producing countries th…
OPEC Cuts Demand Forecast Again as the Oil Market Starts Looking Past Hormuz
OPEC has trimmed its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast for the third straight month, even as crude production rebounds across the Gulf and tanker traffic slowly returns to the Strait of Hormuz. In its monthly oil market report released Monday, OPEC lowered expected oil demand growth this year to 780,000 barrels per day, down another 190,000 bpd from last month's forecast. The producer group still expects stronger consumption than many other…
The war in the Middle East has led to a sharp fall in oil supplies from the Gulf.
OPEC, the alliance of oil-exporting countries, has again reduced its forecast of growth in world oil demand by 2026, against the background of war-related uncertainties in the Middle East.
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