US EditionUK Heatwave Expected to Cause 570 Deaths by End of Weekend
- Researchers at LSHTM and Imperial College London released a real-time study on Saturday forecasting about 570 heat-related deaths in England and Wales from 19 to 22 June 2025.
- A study by the World Weather Attribution group found that climate change has increased the probability of the heatwave occurring by roughly a factor of 100 and raised temperatures by 2-4°C; the heatwave saw forecast highs above 32°C on Saturday, posing significant risks, particularly for older adults.
- The study estimates 488 deaths among people over 65, including 314 aged 85+, with London expected to see the highest excess mortality of 129 deaths.
- Dr Malcolm Mistry cautioned that even moderately warm conditions, typically ranging from the upper 20s to early 30s Celsius, can pose serious health risks and potentially lead to fatalities, especially among older adults, infants, pregnant individuals, and those with existing medical issues, while NHS doctors have observed an increase in heat-related health problems.
- Experts caution that without mitigation, heat deaths will rise as warming increases to 2–3°C by 2050–2100, stressing the need to stop burning fossil fuels to prevent worsening health impacts and NHS strain.
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Nearly 600 people expected to die in UK heatwave as temperatures soar across the country
Experts at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and Imperial College London used decades of UK data to predict excess mortality during the hot temperatures from Thursday to Sunday.
·Wales, United Kingdom
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