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India-US Trade Deal At A Crossroads After Trump's Midterm Setback

Republican losses in Congress could give China, India and Canada more room to resist tariffs and press for better trade terms, analysts said.

  • On Tuesday, November 3, 2026, Republicans lost their majorities in the House and Senate, significantly curbing President Donald Trump's trade policy authority with major trading partners including India, China, and Canada.
  • With foreign policy leverage failing against Russia, China, and Iran, Trump's administration seeks a quick win to demonstrate American clout, prompting analysts to anticipate heightened pressure on India to finalize a trade deal.
  • India's exports to America rose 11% to $50.8 billion in the first half of FY27, while imports climbed 26% to $32.3 billion under a February 2026 framework reducing most Indian tariffs to 18%.
  • Washington announced on November 2 that South Africa will be removed from the African Growth and Opportunity Act on January 1, 2027, while Prime Minister Mark Carney indicated Canada would prefer waiting for a new president.
  • Economist Saul Eslake stated that "Xi Jinping will recognize that Trump's authority has been greatly weakened," suggesting China could exploit the changing political balance and introduce what experts describe as "a new era in world relations.
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Business Today broke the news in India on Wednesday, November 4, 2026.
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