‘Modest downturn’: Deloitte expects downturn for Canada’s economy in Q2, Q3
- Deloitte Canada released an economic outlook on May 1, 2025, forecasting a modest downturn in Canada’s economy during Q2 and Q3 due to U.S. Tariff impacts.
- This outlook follows uncertainty from possible elimination of tariff carve outs under USMCA, which could remove Canada’s preferential access to U.S. Markets and weaken growth.
- The report details expected declines, including a 1.1% GDP drop in Q2, an 11.5% business investment fall, and unemployment peaking at 7.5% in Q3, with consumer spending also slowing.
- Chief economist Dawn Desjardins explained that ongoing uncertainty, including the effects of tariffs, is expected to contribute to a prolonged phase of sluggish economic growth, as both businesses and consumers adopt a more cautious approach to spending.
- The report recommends increasing productivity, diversifying trade away from U.S. Dependence, and reducing internal trade barriers to help Canada emerge stronger and more resilient.
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15 Articles
Canada’s Economy Headed for ‘Modest Downturn’ This Year Due to Tariffs: Deloitte
Canada’s economy will see a drop in investment and an increase in unemployment this year due to U.S. tariffs, a new report from Deloitte Canada suggests. The company’s annual economic statement released on April 30 forecasts the impact of U.S. tariffs on the country’s economy for the next year. Deloitte Canada chief economist Dawn Desjardins says a “modest downturn” is ahead for Canada, while a loss of free-trade access to the United States woul…

Canada appears headed toward a recession by Canada Day. Here’s why
Deloitte predicts negative gross domestic product growth over the second and third quarters of this year, which would meet the definition of a recession.
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