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‘Modest downturn’: Deloitte expects downturn for Canada’s economy in Q2, Q3

  • Deloitte Canada released an economic outlook on May 1, 2025, forecasting a modest downturn in Canada’s economy during Q2 and Q3 due to U.S. Tariff impacts.
  • This outlook follows uncertainty from possible elimination of tariff carve outs under USMCA, which could remove Canada’s preferential access to U.S. Markets and weaken growth.
  • The report details expected declines, including a 1.1% GDP drop in Q2, an 11.5% business investment fall, and unemployment peaking at 7.5% in Q3, with consumer spending also slowing.
  • Chief economist Dawn Desjardins explained that ongoing uncertainty, including the effects of tariffs, is expected to contribute to a prolonged phase of sluggish economic growth, as both businesses and consumers adopt a more cautious approach to spending.
  • The report recommends increasing productivity, diversifying trade away from U.S. Dependence, and reducing internal trade barriers to help Canada emerge stronger and more resilient.
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Canada appears headed toward a recession by Canada Day. Here’s why

Deloitte predicts negative gross domestic product growth over the second and third quarters of this year, which would meet the definition of a recession.

·Niagara Falls, Canada
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Canadian Manufacturing broke the news in on Wednesday, April 30, 2025.
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