Mexico avoids recession despite tariff uncertainty
- Mexico's economy avoided a recession in the first quarter of 2025, growing 0.2 percent from the prior quarter according to INEGI data.
- This growth followed a contraction in late 2024 amid uncertainty from US tariffs announced by President Trump as part of a global trade war.
- Growth was driven by a rebound in agriculture and other sectors, while manufacturing continued to struggle due to the tariffs and related economic pressures.
- Economist Kimberley Sperrfechter highlighted in communications with clients that the manufacturing sector's continued difficulties indicate that US tariffs imposed on Mexico during the previous quarter negatively impacted the country's economic performance.
- Despite this, Mexico outpaced the US economy, which contracted in early 2025, and the government remained optimistic due to ongoing foreign investment and economic support measures.
51 Articles
51 Articles
How did Trump, inadvertently, help Mexico's economy not go into recession?
Mexico's economy grew 0.2 percent in the first quarter of 2025, according to recent estimates by Inegi... and Donald Trump, president of the United States, could be one of the reasons.The timely estimate of gross domestic product (GDP), published by Inegi on April 30, indicated that in the first three months of the year, the economy would have a profit of 0.2 percent.According to this estimate, Mexico's GDP would have surpassed Bloomberg's analy…
Mexico dodges technical recession with economic growth of 0.2% in the first quarter of the year
From January to March 2025, the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.2% compared to the previous quarter, a slight improvement compared to last year’s last tranche, when it fell by 0.6%. Despite the uncertainty over Trump’s tariffs and last year’s slowdown, the Mexican economy was positively surprised in the first quarter. The momentum of this increase has been driven primarily by a growth in primary activities of 8.1%.
Mexico avoids technical recession with 0.2% GDP growth in Q1
Mexico’s GDP grew 0.2% in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the final three months of last year, according to preliminary data from the national statistics agency INEGI. The modest growth allowed the Mexican economy to avoid a technical recession after it contracted 0.6% on a sequential basis in the final quarter of 2024. Today’s Q1 GDP data: +0.4% Eurozone +0.3% Italy +0.2% Germany +0.2% Austria +0.1% France +0.2% Mexico 0.3% U.S. — Jeffre…
Mexico avoids technical recession but economists see tough path ahead
Mexico's economy performed better than expected in the first quarter of the year, preliminary data released by national statistics agency INEGI showed on Wednesday, although analysts continue to warn of a difficult path ahead.
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