JP Morgan Says It Has No Clear Oil Market Endgame as Iran Conflict Drags On
- JPMorgan dropped its forecast for the Iran war's end on Thursday, with strategist Natasha Kaneva stating the bank no longer has a "baseline view" for the market.
- The bank initially assumed economic redlines—oil above $100, gas near $5, and 10-year Treasury yields above 5%—would force President Donald Trump to secure a deal by June, but those thresholds were crossed without resolution.
- Brent crude is trading near $105 per barrel, while global inventories have fallen by about 555 million barrels since the conflict began, though prices have not risen as sharply as JPMorgan expected.
- Trump told Axios on Thursday that he faces a "big decision" on whether to restart major combat operations against Iran or end the war, adding he is approaching a crossroads.
- If Middle East supply disruptions persist, oil prices could increase later this year, Kaneva cautioned, noting that six months into the conflict, the exit strategy remains unclear.
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JP Morgan acknowledges that it is difficult to assess how the war between the United States and Iran will influence oil prices. In a note to investors, bank analysts say that for the first time since the beginning of the conflict, they no longer have a reference vision and "just don't know how to model the final phase of the conflict." Many of the economic thresholds that the bank initially considers to be US-bound have already been exceeded, an…
Analysts give up on predicting gas prices
As the war with Iran drags on into its seventh month, uncertainties over oil prices have even stymied the experts charged with predicting futures. This week, J.P. Morgan officially abandoned any attempts to anticipate the outcome, claiming that analysts don’t know how to model the end of the war fueling the chaotic gas price surge.This stunning admission came down from the head of global commodities research at J.P. Morgan, Natasha Kaneva. Accor…
The American investment bank sends out an unusual note on the oil markets where it admits that for the first time it is not possible to draw up a base scenario. "We thought that the barrel over $100, 5% Treasury and $5 per gallon gasoline were red lines for the U.S. administration. It wasn't so." Models no longer respond to real prices. "Difficult to argue that war is temporary. But if it isn't, what happens?"
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