US EditionIMF edges 2025 growth forecast slightly higher, warns tariff risks still dog outlook
UNITED STATES, JUL 29 – The IMF raised its 2025 global growth forecast to 3% due to trade front-loading and tariff reductions but cautioned that tariff risks and geopolitical tensions could hinder future growth.
- The International Monetary Fund raised its global growth forecast for 2025 to 3%, signaling a slight upward revision from earlier estimates.
- This revision reflects factors such as a surge in front-loaded imports ahead of tariffs, lower effective US tariff rates, fiscal expansion, and a weaker dollar.
- Key supporting details include a 0.5% contraction in the US economy in Q1 due to import surges, China's upgraded 4.8% growth projection, and a 0.2 percentage point rise in Euro-area growth to 1%.
- Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, IMF chief economist, said, "tariffs remain historically high" and warned that despite resilience, the global economy faces elevated uncertainty and risks from trade tensions.
- The outlook implies that while growth appears stronger than initially feared, ongoing tariff policies and geopolitical risks could dampen trade activity and economic expansion going forward.
119 Articles
119 Articles
IMF lifts global growth forecast but warns on tariffs
The IMF raised its global growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 slightly, citing stronger-than-expected purchases ahead of an August 1 jump in US tariffs and a drop in the effective US tariff rate to 17.3pc from 24.4pc. But it warned that the global economy faced major risks including a potential rebound in tariff rates, geopolitical tensions and larger fiscal deficits that could drive up interest rates and tighten global financial conditions.
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IMF raises 2025 growth forecast and warns against global trade tensions
The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday raised its global growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 slightly, citing stronger-than-expected purchases ahead of an August 1 jump in U.S. tariffs and a drop in the effective U.S. tariff rate from 24.4% to 17.3%. It warned, however, that the global economy faced major risks, including a potential rebound in tariff rates, geopolitical tensions, and larger fiscal deficits that could drive up interest rates …
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