Bryan Norcross: The Tropics Remain Quiet

Bryan Norcross: The tropics remain quiet

No significant development is expected across the tropical Atlantic, the Caribbean, or the Gulf through next week, at least.The entire tropical belt is covered with dry air, including surges of Saharan dust. As a result, disturbances that move off Africa are unable to develop, even when they reach ocean waters that are warm enough to support them. In addition, strong upper-level winds are blowing across the Caribbean, prohibiting any development…

How much longer will the mostly quiet tropical Atlantic stay mostly quiet?

In brief: More flash flooding may occur today for parts of the Mid-Atlantic or New England, as well as back into much of Iowa. The tropics are quiet for now, but things may slowly tick up some by later this month, as we investigate below. Note: Most of the data in these posts originates from NOAA and NWS. Many of the taxpayer-funded forecasting tools described below come from NOAA-led research from research institutes that will have their fundin…