Prediction Markets Shift US Election Odds on Small Bets, Researchers Say
ACDC said 97% of midterm markets can move five cents with a $3,500 bet, raising concerns about low-cost manipulation.
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7 Articles
Prediction markets shift US election odds on small bets, researchers ...
Small Bets Can Swing Election Prediction Markets
“Prediction markets are everywhere ahead of November’s midterm election, and manipulating their election contracts can be achieved with be a small investment,” CNBC reports. “New research from the Anti-Corruption Data Collective found that moving most campaign-related prediction markets costs less than the maximum personal campaign contribution allowed under federal law: $3,500. A $3,500 bet can […]
An Anti-Corruption Data Collective study argues that small bets can significantly alter the odds of thousands of U.S. electoral markets, while Kalshi and Polymarket defend the ability of their operators to correct distorted prices.
How much does it cost to move an election prediction market? Not much
Prediction markets are everywhere ahead of November’s midterm election, and manipulating their election contracts can be achieved with be a small investment. New research from the Anti-Corruption Data Collective, shared exclusively with CNBC, found that moving most campaign-related prediction markets costs less than the maximum personal campaign contribution allowed under federal law: $3,500. A $3,500
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