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Quantum Computers May Crack RSA Encryption with Fewer Qubits than Expected

  • In 2025, a research team from Google's quantum computing division, with Craig Gidney as the lead, demonstrated that quantum machines could break 2,048-bit RSA encryption using substantially fewer resources than previously estimated.
  • This finding builds on advances in quantum algorithms and error correction that reduce the required qubits from 20 million in 2019 to under one million today.
  • Gidney's research suggests that a quantum machine equipped with under one million imperfect qubits could break a 2,048-bit RSA key in less than a week, highlighting potential vulnerabilities in encryption systems such as those protecting cryptocurrency wallets.
  • Gidney reported that the required qubit count for factoring a 2048-bit RSA key has dropped by a factor of 20 compared to earlier projections, bringing theoretical predictions closer to realistic quantum security concerns.
  • Though such quantum machines do not yet exist, this research urges the security community to accelerate post-quantum cryptography adoption to protect future communications.
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CSO Online broke the news in on Monday, May 26, 2025.
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