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Fed's July Interest Rate Move Hard to Predict

Warsh says the Fed still aims for 2% inflation, but officials have not said how they will reach it before the July meeting.

  • The Federal Open Market Committee, led by Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, meets Tuesday and Wednesday this week to determine interest rates amid persistent inflation concerns.
  • Inflation remains elevated at 3.5%, driven by fuel prices up 15.7% from a year ago, while Middle East conflict and President Donald Trump's foreign policy constrain rate-cut options.
  • According to CME FedWatch data, 68.5% of traders expect a rate hold this week; EY-Parthenon economist Gregory Daco wrote, "Chair Warsh's communication void has encouraged other policymakers to speak more forcefully."
  • Chair Warsh faces a difficult decision, balancing the risk of damaging the Fed's credibility against the strategic incentive to hike rates as global instability exerts upward price pressure.
  • Experts project three potential 25-basis-point hikes in September, October, and December to combat stubborn price growth, contingent on whether inflation recedes from current levels.
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Center

The Federal Reserve decides interest rates on July 28th and 29th. The market sees a 63.5% probability of keeping them at 3.50%-3.75%, but inflation opens the door to an increase. How it affects you.

Lean Left

Global markets are focused on the US Federal Reserve's (FED) July 2026 interest rate decision, and the countdown has begun. So, when will the FED interest rate decision be announced? What will the July 2026 FED interest rate decision be?

·Istanbul, Türkiye
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La Tribune broke the news in Paris, France on Sunday, July 26, 2026.
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