US may have millions more measles cases over next 25 years if childhood vaccination rates continue to decline, study says
- Researchers published on April 24, 2025, a study warning that the U.S. Faces a return of endemic measles within about 20 years if vaccination rates stay low.
- The decline in childhood MMR vaccination from 95 percent in 2019-20 to 90.8 percent nationally has reduced herd immunity, increasing measles outbreak risks.
- As of mid-April 2025, the CDC confirmed 800 measles cases across 25 states, including a major Texas outbreak with 624 cases and two child deaths.
- Study leader Nathan Lo said a 10% decline in vaccinations could cause 11.1 million measles cases in 25 years, while a 50% drop might yield 51.2 million cases and 159,200 deaths.
- The study implies small increases in vaccination coverage could prevent measles becoming endemic, emphasizing the urgent need for accurate vaccine information amid rising misinformation.
134 Articles
134 Articles
Oklahoma health experts warn of Vitamin A toxicity amid measles outbreak
OKLAHOMA CITY (KFOR) — Oklahoma health experts are weighing in on a new concern linked to the measles outbreak. There's been a lot of discussion about Vitamin A protecting against the disease, even from Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., but health experts say it doesn't work and it can be dangerous. "It's important to recognize we're not getting calls here in Oklahoma, we're just trying to get ahead of this story," said …
Measles: we’re on the precipice of a disaster, experts say
Measles may become endemic again in the US within 20 years if vaccination rates don’t improve, according to new modelling. Only 2 doses of the measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccine are required to achieve 99% effectiveness to prevent infection from the virus for life. These are usually both administered to children by the age of 6, and have drastically cut measles outbreaks in countries like Australia and the US in recent decades. But as vacc…
Measles endemic could be coming
(CNN, KYMA/KECY) – A new study shows that measles could become endemic if U.S. vaccination rates do not improve. That's despite its declared elimination back in 2000. Over a period of 25 years, researchers of a project involving almost 900,000 measles cases say that if rates stay the same they forecast around 11 million vaccinations to decline 10% and more than 51 million if they dropped by 50%. Vaccination rates are down in the U.S. since the C…
A Small Drop in Vaccinations Could Spread Measles to Millions, Study Warns
It takes just a spark to start a wildfire, and when it comes to measles, the embers are already glowing.A new modelling study published in JAMA sounded the alarm: recent drops in childhood vaccination rates could reignite diseases that were nearly extinguished. The researchers used a simulation to predict the effect of falling vaccination coverage for measles, rubella, polio and diphtheria. Even at current coverage, measles alone could soon …
How a small vaccine drop could see measles becoming endemic again – new study
Family Stock/Shutterstock.comIt takes just a spark to start a wildfire, and when it comes to measles, the embers are already glowing. A new modelling study published in Jama sounded the alarm: recent drops in childhood vaccination rates could reignite diseases that were nearly extinguished. The researchers used a simulation to predict the effect of falling vaccination coverage for measles, rubella, polio and diphtheria. Even at current coverage,…
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