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US may have millions more measles cases over next 25 years if childhood vaccination rates continue to decline, study says

  • Researchers published on April 24, 2025, a study warning that the U.S. Faces a return of endemic measles within about 20 years if vaccination rates stay low.
  • The decline in childhood MMR vaccination from 95 percent in 2019-20 to 90.8 percent nationally has reduced herd immunity, increasing measles outbreak risks.
  • As of mid-April 2025, the CDC confirmed 800 measles cases across 25 states, including a major Texas outbreak with 624 cases and two child deaths.
  • Study leader Nathan Lo said a 10% decline in vaccinations could cause 11.1 million measles cases in 25 years, while a 50% drop might yield 51.2 million cases and 159,200 deaths.
  • The study implies small increases in vaccination coverage could prevent measles becoming endemic, emphasizing the urgent need for accurate vaccine information amid rising misinformation.
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The Independent broke the news in London, United Kingdom on Wednesday, April 23, 2025.
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