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U.S. Inflation Forecast to Fall 0.2% as Gas, Car Prices Ease
Economists said June consumer prices likely fell 0.2% as gasoline dropped nearly 20% from its late-May peak, FactSet reported.
On Tuesday, the United States government's inflation report is forecast to show consumer prices dropped 0.2% in June, according to a survey by FactSet, marking the first monthly decline in nearly four years.
Inflation likely cooled last month as gas prices declined, providing relief even as renewed combat in the Middle East sent Brent crude oil prices climbing 9.6% on Monday, complicating the outlook.
Walmart last week rolled back prices on thousands of items including ground beef and toys, while new and used car prices are expected to have fallen; companies like Apple, Microsoft, and Dell announced price increases for tablets and consoles.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller warned that a rate hike might be needed if core inflation remains elevated, while Chair Kevin Warsh emphasizes the Fed's focus on returning inflation to its 2% target.
John Williams, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, indicated that core inflation increasing at 0.2% monthly or less for the rest of this year would align with falling inflation and bring prices nearer to target.