US EditionEconomists See Lower Recession Risk and Stronger Job Growth: WSJ Survey
UNITED STATES, JUL 13 – A Wall Street Journal survey shows economists lowered recession odds and expect stronger job growth due to recent resilient economic data this month.
- The Wall Street Journal surveyed 69 economic forecasters from July 3-8, finding economists expect stronger growth and lower recession risk in the U.S.
- This outlook was supported by positive trends over the past quarter, with monthly job increases around 150,000 and a slight decline in unemployment from 4.2% in May to 4.1% in June.
- Forecasters noted that tariffs still pose inflation risks in the second half of 2025, but a spike has yet to emerge as U.S. inflation is the lowest in four years.
- Economists raised fourth-quarter GDP growth forecasts from 0.8% to 1%, while the S&P 500 achieved record highs, and recession probability dropped from 45% in April to 33%.
- This suggests economic resilience despite policy uncertainties, with moderated inflation, stronger job creation, and markets maintaining optimism amid tariff tensions.
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- 50% of the sources are Center
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