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GDP to Grow at 7.4% in 2025-26, Government Predicts in First Advance Estimates for the Year

Manufacturing and services sectors are expected to accelerate growth while agriculture slows and mining contracts, according to the National Statistics Office.

  • On Wednesday, the National Statistics Office released First Advance Estimates projecting 7.4% GDP growth for financial year 2025-26, up from 6.5% in 2024-25.
  • Based on partial-year data, the First Advance Estimates compile preliminary growth signals using data up to the cut-off and form the basis for calculations in the Union Budget presented in February.
  • The tertiary sector is forecast to accelerate to 9.1% in 2025-26, with financial, real estate and professional services and public administration services each expected to grow 9.9%.
  • Compared with the RBI's December outlook, the government's projection of 7.4% is slightly higher than the RBI's forecast of 7.3%.
  • On February 27, authorities will publish the Second Advance Estimates, and later this year, Provisional Estimates using full-year data will arrive on May 30, 2026, aligning with the Union Budget for 2026-27 in February.
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The Hindu Business Line broke the news in New Delhi, India on Wednesday, January 7, 2026.
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