US EditionScientists Develop System to Predict Etna Eruptions Months Early
INGV researchers found that analyzing 20 years of earthquake data using the b value helps track magma movement and allows eruption forecasts months in advance.
- On Oct. 8, Italy's National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology published a Science Advances study showing b value tracking predicts Mount Etna eruptions months ahead.
- Current monitoring mainly tracks shallow magma and offers short-term forecasts, with the June 2025 eruption producing a 6.5 kilometer-high ash column that emphasized longer warnings.
- Using 20 years of earthquake records from 2005 to 2024, researchers showed the b value measures the ratio of small to large earthquakes linked to magma ascent through deep storage approximately 11 km below sea level and intermediate storage 3–7 km deep.
- Integrating b-value monitoring into multiparametric surveillance systems with satellite imagery and gas emission monitoring can improve alerts, while researchers at INGV plan to extend this to other Italian and international volcanic areas.
- Given Etna's intense activity, Mount Etna represents an ideal test case due to its vast seismic archive, but the method only applies where seismic monitoring networks capture sufficient earthquakes.
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abc NewsScientists discover new way to detect volcanic eruptions at Mount Etna
Scientists have discovered a novel way to predict the next eruption at Mount Etna, the active volcano on the Italian island of Sicily. Researchers at Italy's National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology are monitoring signals of magma movement within the Earth's crust to detect when the next eruption at Etna is imminent, according to a paper published in Science earlier this month.
Earlier volcano prediction at Mount Etna made possible by new earthquake pattern analysis
Located on the island of Sicily, in Italy, Mount Etna is one of the world's most active volcanoes. Documentation of its many eruptions stretches back as far as 2,700 years ago, with the most recent occurring in June 2025. The robust seismic, geological, geophysical, and geochemical data from the region are a scientific goldmine for the study of volcanoes.
Earthquake frequency-magnitude distribution at Mount Etna sheds light on magma ascent in the volcano’s plumbing system
Active volcanoes in densely populated areas are generally monitored through geological observations, geophysical, and geochemical data, which provide information on magma movement in the uppermost crust, allowing only short-term predictions of ...
An Earlier Prediction of the Volcano on Etna Made Possible by a New Analysis of the Earthquake Model
Located on the island of Sicily, Italy, Etna is one of the most active volcanoes in the world. Documentation of its numerous eruptions goes back 2,700 years, the most recent having taken place in June 2025. The solid seismic, geological, geophysical and geochemical data of the region constitute a scientific gold mine for the study [...]
Scientists at the Italian National Institute for Geophysical and Volcanological Research have discovered a previously unknown but quite strong correlation by analyzing the patterns of previous eruptions.
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