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Scientists Develop System to Predict Etna Eruptions Months Early

INGV researchers found that analyzing 20 years of earthquake data using the b value helps track magma movement and allows eruption forecasts months in advance.

  • On Oct. 8, Italy's National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology published a Science Advances study showing b value tracking predicts Mount Etna eruptions months ahead.
  • Current monitoring mainly tracks shallow magma and offers short-term forecasts, with the June 2025 eruption producing a 6.5 kilometer-high ash column that emphasized longer warnings.
  • Using 20 years of earthquake records from 2005 to 2024, researchers showed the b value measures the ratio of small to large earthquakes linked to magma ascent through deep storage approximately 11 km below sea level and intermediate storage 3–7 km deep.
  • Integrating b-value monitoring into multiparametric surveillance systems with satellite imagery and gas emission monitoring can improve alerts, while researchers at INGV plan to extend this to other Italian and international volcanic areas.
  • Given Etna's intense activity, Mount Etna represents an ideal test case due to its vast seismic archive, but the method only applies where seismic monitoring networks capture sufficient earthquakes.
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Scientists discover new way to detect volcanic eruptions at Mount Etna

Scientists have discovered a novel way to predict the next eruption at Mount Etna.

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ingv.it broke the news in on Friday, March 13, 2020.
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