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Hung Parliament Still Likely Outcome of Tasmanian Election, with Liberals Well Ahead of Labor in New Poll

TASMANIA, AUSTRALIA, JUL 14 – DemosAU poll shows Liberals lead with 34.9% while independents gain 20.3%, signaling a hung parliament and likely coalition talks after Saturday’s election.

  • Conducted July 6–10, a DemosAU Pulse Tasmania poll shows Liberals at 34.9%, Labor at 24.7% and the Greens at 15.6%.
  • Following an 18–17 no-confidence vote on June 5 over budget, power sales and ferry delays, the election was called, attributed to AAP.
  • Using electorate-level results, the poll estimates Liberals on 13–14 seats, Labor on 9–10, the Greens on 6–7, with independents on 4–6.
  • The Poll Bludger warns Tasmania is headed for a hung parliament, with Liberals unlikely to secure a majority and forced to negotiate with Greens or independents.
  • A YouGov survey finds 52% of Tasmanian voters prioritize health, 45% public housing, and 33% oppose the proposed Macquarie Point stadium.
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The Poll Bludger broke the news in on Monday, July 14, 2025.
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