US EditionCox Automotive Forecast: May New-Vehicle Sales to Cool After Tariff-Fueled Surge, 16M SAAR Expected
- Cox Automotive released a forecast on May 27, 2025, projecting May new-vehicle sales in the U.S. To reach about 1.50 million units, reflecting a 16.0 million SAAR.
- The forecast follows a tariff-driven surge in March and April, when many buyers accelerated purchases before prices increased, leading to expected slower May sales.
- Inventory on dealer lots declined 7.4% from April to 2.49 million units, with days' supply dropping six days to 66, indicating tighter availability after strong earlier sales.
- Senior economist Charlie Chesbrough noted that the surge in demand caused by buyers accelerating their purchases ahead of tariff-related price increases has largely run its course, leading to an anticipated decline in consumer interest this month, amid dealers' growing concerns about future market conditions.
- The forecast implies May’s sales pace will cool from earlier months, suggesting that higher prices and tariffed inventory replacements may slow sales momentum in coming months.
32 Articles
32 Articles
Chatham Star Tribune
Cox Automotive Forecast: May New-Vehicle Sales to Cool After Tariff-Fueled Surge, 16M SAAR Expected
May's new-vehicle sales pace is forecast to reach approximately 16.0 million, up slightly compared to last May's 15.8 million pace but down from April's strong 17.3 million level.The sales volume of new vehicles for May is projected to reach 1.50…
The automotive industry is a traditional nearshoring sector. As a result of globalization, many large companies have built up regional production capacities in countries that are geographically or economically key, such as Mexico and Argentina. However, the tariffs introduced by the US administration are now posing serious challenges for these companies. The 8th and final part of the Energy Strategy Institute's nearshoring series.
Pace of May U.S. Auto Sales to Decelerate from March and April Surge
Southfield, Mich.—With volume for the month projected at 1.47 million units, May 2025 U.S. auto sales are estimated to translate to an estimated sales pace of 15.7 million units (seasonally adjusted annual rate: SAAR), according to S&P Global Mobility. The SAAR reading will be an expected and definitive step down from the 17.6-million-unit average over the March to April period. With one m...
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