US EditionClimate change and aerosol pollution made drought inevitable in the US Southwest: Study
US SOUTHWEST, JUL 9 – A study attributes decreased precipitation and inevitable drought in the US Southwest to human-caused climate change and aerosol pollution, projecting continued dry conditions as temperatures rise.
- On July 9, 2025, Lehner and colleagues published a study in Nature Geoscience showing climate change and aerosols have made drought inevitable in the US Southwest.
- The study links the long-term decline in Southwest precipitation since about 1980 to human-caused climate change and increased aerosol emissions affecting weather patterns.
- Researchers used observations and CMIP6 simulations to develop a framework revealing aerosol forcing drives drying trends by altering solar radiation and atmospheric circulation.
- Lehner explained that climate change has a stronger impact on precipitation than earlier estimates suggested, and the study forecasts that ongoing warming will likely cause drought to persist.
- The findings provide new tools to help Southwest water managers plan despite warming temperatures that will gradually offset air quality improvements reducing aerosols.
6 Articles
6 Articles
Recent southwestern US drought exacerbated by anthropogenic aerosols and tropical ocean warming
The southwestern United States is currently in a multi-decade drought that has developed since a precipitation maximum in the 1980s. While anthropogenic warming has made the drought more severe, it is the decline in winter–spring precipitation that has had a more profound effect on water resources and ecosystems. This precipitation decline is not well understood beyond its attribution to the post-1980 La Niña-like cooling trend in tropical sea s…
Climate change and aerosol pollution made drought inevitable in the Southwest: Study
(The Hill) - The combined effects of climate change and air pollution have led to direct declines in precipitation in the U.S. Southwest, making drought inevitable, a new study has shown. These circumstances, which began taking hold in about 1980, are likely here to stay as the planet warms, according to the study, published on Wednesday in Nature Geoscience. Its authors attributed this decades-long trend toward less precipitation to La Niña-lik…
Climate change and aerosol pollution made drought inevitable in the US Southwest: Study
The combined effects of climate change and air pollution have led to direct declines in precipitation in the U.S. Southwest, making drought inevitable, a new study has shown. These circumstances, which began taking hold in about 1980, are likely here to stay as the planet warms, according to the study, published on Wednesday in Nature Geoscience.…
Climate change and aerosols drive persistent drought and lower rainfall in Southwest, study finds
In the late 2010s, when Assistant Professor Flavio Lehner worked for the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado, water managers often asked him about the drought in the Southwest. Was the low precipitation simply an unlucky draw in the cycle of long-term weather variations? What role did climate change play? Most importantly, was the drought there to stay?
Aerosol Emissions Dominate Observed and Modeled Hydrological Trends in Arid and Semiarid Regions
Arid and semi-arid regions are highly sensitive to hydroclimate changes. In recent decades, precipitation and evapotranspiration have declined across vast global drylands, posing critical challenges to water security and fragile ecosystems. However, these drying trends remain poorly understood an...
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