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China fourth-quarter growth slows to 4.5%, weakest in nearly three years as consumption misses forecasts

China’s 5% growth in 2025 met official targets despite weak consumer spending and a record $1.2 trillion trade surplus, with Q4 growth slowing to 4.5%, the weakest since 2022.

  • On Monday, the National Bureau of Statistics reported China's GDP grew 4.5% in the October-to-December period, slowing from 4.8% in Q3 and the weakest since Q1 2023.
  • Against that backdrop, Beijing policymakers note domestic demand softened amid growing U.S.-China trade frictions and a 1.3% contraction in fixed-asset investment last year.
  • In December, officials reported industrial output climbed 5.2%, retail sales grew 0.9%, and the urban unemployment rate remained at 5.1%.
  • That outcome leaves policymakers able to hold off on large-scale stimulus as full-year economic output came in at 5%, helped by lower-than-expected tariff rates and exporters' diversification.
  • Street-Level scenes in Huaqiangbei illustrate Chinese consumers on Jan. 14, 2026, capturing pedestrian activity amid uneven economic momentum.
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YUAN TALKS broke the news in on Sunday, January 18, 2026.
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