Morgan Stanley Cuts Brent Forecast to $75 a Barrel
Morgan Stanley lowered its third-quarter 2026 Dated Brent forecast by $15 to $75 a barrel as tanker traffic through Hormuz recovered.
- On Monday, Morgan Stanley analysts Martijn Rats, Charlotte Firkins, and Amy Gower lowered their third-quarter 2026 Dated Brent forecast by $15 to $75 a barrel, citing accelerating oil flows through the Strait and Hormuz.
- Morgan Stanley counted 35 oil and gas tankers exiting the Persian Gulf through the Strait on Thursday, the first time levels returned to the 30 to 40 range typical before the conflict started in February.
- High exports and weak Chinese crude purchases are creating a new supply glut, bringing the market full-circle as millions of barrels from the Middle East head toward global markets.
- Prices are set to drop further by the third quarter of next year, with the bank now expecting a Dated Brent price of $70 per barrel at the end of 2027.
- Separately, Goldman Sachs cut its fourth-quarter 2026 price forecast to $80 per barrel from $90, and lowered its 2027 average forecast for Brent crude to $75 per barrel from $80.
11 Articles
11 Articles
As Hormuz opens, oil markets are awash in supply
The oil market is coming full circle as millions of barrels that were stranded in the Persian Gulf head to global markets, creating a sudden oversupply that has pushed prices to their lowest level since the US-Iran war began.Morgan Stanley analysts said in a note to clients that they counted 35 oil tankers exiting the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, close to the typical daily average seen before the war. “Yet the ‘twin solvers’ of high US exports …
The flow of tankers through the Strait of Ormuz accelerated following progress in the peace talks, and Morgan Stanley warns of the risk of over-saturated markets.
Morgan Stanley Cuts Brent Forecast to $75 a Barrel
Morgan Stanley has slashed its oil price forecasts for the next 18 month as it expects the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to accelerate a new supply glut. The return of oil supply from the Middle East, combined with high U.S. oil exports and still weak Chinese crude purchases, will bring the market full-circle to a new glut in the coming months, according to the bank’s analysts, who slashed their oil price projections for the second time in t…
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