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Bank of Canada Expected to Move to Sidelines Amid Inflation ‘Messiness’
Economists expect the Bank of Canada to hold rates as October inflation eased to 2.2% with mixed core signals complicating policy decisions, markets price near 90% chance of no change.
- Markets reacted as on Nov. 17, 2025, Statistics Canada reported October inflation cooled to 2.5%, with markets pricing a just under 90% chance the Bank of Canada will hold rates on Dec. 10.
- Amid one-off swings and policy changes, BMO chief economist Doug Porter said `There are a lot of conflicting signals and there's a lot of messiness in underlying inflation`, influenced by tariff and tax shifts.
- Excluding food and energy, core inflation rose three ticks to 2.7%, with cellular service costs increasing despite mixed food price shifts, Porter noted.
- Given recent rate cuts, the Bank of Canada senior economist Andrew Grantham said `We continue to forecast no change in the overnight rate through to the end of next year`, indicating a likely hold in policy.
- Looking beyond October's data, Canadian homeowners face 38.9 higher home and mortgage insurance, 18.9 increased vehicle premiums, and 5.6 property taxes , while the Bank of Canada aims to meet its two per cent target.
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Total News Sources11
Leaning Left6Leaning Right1Center1Last UpdatedBias Distribution75% Left
Bias Distribution
- 75% of the sources lean Left
75% Left
L 75%
13%
12%
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