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Australia's Core Inflation Hits 16-Month High, Raises Bets for May Rate Hike

January inflation rose 3.8% and core inflation hit 3.4%, surpassing the Reserve Bank of Australia's target and increasing chances of a May rate hike.

  • On 2026-02-25, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s preferred trimmed mean inflation rose to 3.4%, exceeding the 3.3% forecast and remaining above the target band for a seventh month.
  • Policy shifts — notably energy rebate removal — helped contribute to January inflation, according to Treasurer Jim Chalmers, with housing, food, and recreation as major factors.
  • The Australian dollar edged higher and three‑year government bond yields rose as much as 4 basis points to 4.28% after the release, with traders fully priced a May 4‑5 meeting rate increase and betting the cash rate could reach 4.1%.
  • Heightened inflation places pressure on Jim Chalmers ahead of the May budget, with Michele Bullock, Reserve Bank Governor, saying she will not hesitate to hike interest rates.
  • Looking ahead, market and bank forecasts diverge as most major banks expect a May rate lift while AMP Ltd. and ANZ Bank predict a pause, with the full quarterly CPI release on April 29 key for decisions and a 60% market-implied November move.
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PerthNow broke the news in City of Perth, Australia on Wednesday, February 25, 2026.
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