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Australia's Core Inflation Hits 16-Month High, Raises Bets for May Rate Hike
January inflation rose 3.8% and core inflation hit 3.4%, surpassing the Reserve Bank of Australia's target and increasing chances of a May rate hike.
- On 2026-02-25, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s preferred trimmed mean inflation rose to 3.4%, exceeding the 3.3% forecast and remaining above the target band for a seventh month.
- Policy shifts — notably energy rebate removal — helped contribute to January inflation, according to Treasurer Jim Chalmers, with housing, food, and recreation as major factors.
- The Australian dollar edged higher and three‑year government bond yields rose as much as 4 basis points to 4.28% after the release, with traders fully priced a May 4‑5 meeting rate increase and betting the cash rate could reach 4.1%.
- Heightened inflation places pressure on Jim Chalmers ahead of the May budget, with Michele Bullock, Reserve Bank Governor, saying she will not hesitate to hike interest rates.
- Looking ahead, market and bank forecasts diverge as most major banks expect a May rate lift while AMP Ltd. and ANZ Bank predict a pause, with the full quarterly CPI release on April 29 key for decisions and a 60% market-implied November move.
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12 Articles
12 Articles
Australia's core inflation hits 16-month high, raises bets for May rate hike
Australian consumer prices rose by more than expected in January, while core inflation hit the highest in over a year, an uncomfortable outcome for policymakers that raises the risk of another hike in interest rates.
·United Kingdom
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The Age
‘No sugarcoating it’: Inflation continues to climb, rate rise tipped before budget day
The Reserve Bank is under increasing pressure to consider a rate rise before the budget in May after new figures showed inflation growing through the start of the year.
·Sydney, Australia
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Total News Sources12
Leaning Left3Leaning Right5Center3Last UpdatedBias Distribution46% Right
Bias Distribution
- 46% of the sources lean Right
46% Right
L 27%
C 27%
R 46%
Factuality
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