Are We Bullish Enough? (Redux)

Are We Bullish Enough? (Redux)

At the beginning of 2020, I argued that the S&P 500 was likely to be 4x higher by 2030. This "prediction" came from a chart that looked at the future 10-year growth in the S&P 500 based on the prior 20-year returns. All I did was calculate the S&P 500's return over the last 20 years (i.e. from 2000-2019) and then found other periods that had a similar prior 20-year return historically. To be specific, U.S. stocks had 6% annualized returns (with …