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Top Of Dollars And Data News
S&P 500 · United StatesWith the S&P 500 now 8.6% off its recent highs, I've seen quite a few people argue that a market crash can be a good thing, especially for younger investors. As Chamath recently tweeted:
The upside of shrinking these asset prices is that it gives [young and working class people] a legitimate chance to buy into those markets at lower levels, making equity ownership and/or home ownership more possible.
All else equal, this is correct. If we assume…See the Story
Never Root for a Recession
Stock Markets · United StatesFollowing another year of U.S. stocks outperforming international stocks, many U.S. investors are asking themselves:
Do I need to own international stocks?
It's a fair question. In the 15 years since the bottom of the Great Financial Crisis in March 2009, U.S. stocks are up around 10x, while international stocks are only up 3.6x (including dividends, but not adjusting for inflation). This means that U.S. stocks have outperformed international st…See the Story
Do You Need to Own International Stocks?
Stock MarketsIn his latest letter to shareholders, Terry Smith explained why passive funds are effectively momentum strategies that create a self-reinforcing cycle, driving up large-cap stocks. In late 2023, passive investments via index funds surpassed active funds in Assets Under Management (AUM), now exceeding 50%. During the Dotcom boom, only 10% of AUM was in passive funds. While index funds are labeled as “passive,” they are effectively momentum strate…See the Story
Terry Smith: Passive Investing: The Self-Reinforcing Momentum Strategy | The Acquirer's Multiple®
S&P 500 · United StatesAt the beginning of 2020, I argued that the S&P 500 was likely to be 4x higher by 2030. This "prediction" came from a chart that looked at the future 10-year growth in the S&P 500 based on the prior 20-year returns. All I did was calculate the S&P 500's return over the last 20 years (i.e. from 2000-2019) and then found other periods that had a similar prior 20-year return historically.
To be specific, U.S. stocks had 6% annualized returns (with …See the Story
Are We Bullish Enough? (Redux)
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