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America's birth rate has plunged. Are smartphones to blame?

Researchers said smartphone adoption may explain 33% to 52% of the decline in births among women ages 15 to 44.

  • Middlebury College economists Caitlin Myers and Ezekiel Hooper released research this month linking the iPhone's 2007 introduction to declining U.S. fertility, suggesting the device explains 33% to 52% of the birth rate drop among women aged 15 to 44.
  • The study argues smartphones fundamentally altered social behavior by reducing in-person interactions and sexual frequency. Researchers contend that increased pornography use and digital engagement drove the observed collapse in fertility.
  • Utilizing data from 2007 to 2011, Myers and Hooper compared birth rates in areas with high AT&T mobile broadband coverage against those with minimal access. Apple's exclusive iPhone distribution through AT&T enabled this natural experiment.
  • Fertility rates falling below the 2.1 replacement level pose a 'real concern for economic growth,' according to Myers. Current systems rely on younger workers to support older retirees, making declining birth rates a significant structural challenge.
  • While the Trump administration has floated ideas like a 'baby bonus' offering up to $1,000 to eligible children, such financial incentives have largely failed to move the needle. Experts suggest reversing this demographic trend through policy alone remains unlikely.
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Folha de S.Paulo broke the news on Wednesday, June 10, 2026.
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