US EditionAC Emissions Could Surpass US Output by 2050
Air conditioning emissions could reach 8.5 GtCO2-eq yearly by 2050, surpassing current US emissions and adding up to 0.07°C warming, researchers warn.
- On February 25, 2026, researchers at the University of Birmingham reported that air-conditioning use will more than double by 2050, with emissions reaching 8.5 GtCO2‑eq per year, surpassing US output.
- Rising incomes and stock growth mean residential air-conditioning units have tripled to more than 1.5 billion, while global population AC ownership is set to exceed 45% by 2030.
- Using a layered modeling approach, the team estimated cooling needs, ran GCAM global energy‑economy model across five SSP–RCP scenarios, and used MAGICC to convert emissions into warming.
- Researchers warn that if all low-income regions gained the same AC access, related global emissions could cause 0.015°C–0.05°C of extra warming by 2050, creating a development dilemma.
- Policy prescriptions include rapid transitions to clean grids, low-pollution refrigerants, insulation, shading, and behavioral changes like turning AC down and avoiding peak hours to balance equitable cooling and emissions reduction.
12 Articles
12 Articles
The use of air conditioning systems is expected to double globally in the coming decades. Electricity demand will then be roughly equivalent to that of the entire US
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