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Flavio Bolsonaro, Lula about even ahead of Brazil election runoff, CNT/MDA poll shows

Datafolha says the race is a statistical tie, with only 2% of voters undecided and prediction markets still favoring Bolsonaro.

  • On Thursday, a Datafolha poll showed Brazilian Senator Flávio Bolsonaro and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva tied at 50% of valid votes ahead of the October 25 runoff election.
  • Datafolha's latest survey indicates a tightening race, as Flávio Bolsonaro's previous 51% lead has eroded to a tie within a week after he led Lula in the first-round vote earlier this month.
  • In raw totals, Bolsonaro received 47% and Lula 46%, with 5% of respondents intending to cast blank or null votes and 2% remaining undecided, the poll showed.
  • Voters will decide the presidency on Sunday, October 25, when the winner assumes office for a four-year term in a race that remains a statistical tie.
  • Prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi give Bolsonaro a 78% and 79% chance of winning, respectively, as of Thursday evening, contrasting with the polling dead heat.
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Center

Polls point to a tie between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, in a campaign marked by polarization and disinformation

Lean Right

A few hours after the second presidential round in Brazil, the latest polls published this Saturday show a , who remain in a scenario of technical tie in front of the elections this Sunday. Datafolha’s most recent poll, reported by the newspaper Folha de S.Paulo, places the Liberal Party candidate ... Continue reading "Brazil arrives at the ballotage with technical tie between Lula and Bolsonaro, according to latest polls"

·Concepción, Chile
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Lean Right

The PL candidate concluded his agenda in front of his father's former condominium, former President Jair Bolsonaro, in Barra da Tijuca, in the southern part of Rio de Janeiro, while the PT flagman returned to Paulista Avenue in São Paulo to close the electoral contest.

·Las Condes, Chile
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Center

Flavio Bolsonaro would come back to the head with 51% of the valid votes on Lula stopped at 49%. The last survey of Datafolha, the same organization that last Thursday had given the two candidates perfectly paired, 50 to 50. (ANSA)

·Rome, Italy
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Lean Left

Flávio Bolsonaro’s favoritism has been losing its bellows in a second round starring in the interference of big techs against Lula, censorship and the leading role of progressive citizenshipFlávio Bolsonaro, the candidate with paramilitary ties that caress the presidency of Brazil. Lula da Silva’s agonic cast. If the first poll after the first round of the presidential elections gave the candidate Flávio Bolsonaro six points of advantage over Pr…

·Madrid, Spain
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Portal Mix Vale broke the news in Brazil on Thursday, October 22, 2026.
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