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Top The Tally Room News

Tasmanians Head to Another State Election

Sarah Ferguson · Hobart

Tasmanians Head to Another State Election

100% Left coverage: 2 sources

Sarah Ferguson presents Australia's premier daily current affairs program, delivering agenda-setting public affairs journalism and interviews that hold the powerful to account. Plus political analysis from Laura Tingle.See the Story

3CP data sheds light on the close races

New South Wales · New South Wales

3CP data sheds light on the close races

Late on Monday, the AEC transitioned the election results website to its final archive form. You can now find the results at results.aec.gov.au, and the previous link no longer works. There is probably enough fresh data to fuel a whole week of blog posts. I am planning to return to the question of the national 2PP and 2PP preference flows by party, as well as some deeper analysis of the 3CP trends across the country. For this post, I am going to…Read Article

The make-up of the marginal seat list

Australia · Australia

The make-up of the marginal seat list

Earlier this month I published a blog post which discovered that the average 2CP margin of victory has not actually been getting smaller at recent federal elections. I didn’t end up including the chart in the post, but I also identified that the numbers of marginal seats hasn’t been going up over time, despite a number of formerly-safe seats now becoming marginal non-classic seats. But I wanted to explore the make-up of those marginal seats over…Read Article

How the vote split between the early vote and election day

Last month I posted about the increase in the proportion of votes that were cast early (postal, pre-poll and remote) as opposed to those cast on election day. 55.7% of votes were cast early, with just 43.6% casting their votes on the day. For today’s post I am looking at how those voters actually voted, and how it’s changed over time. Starting with the two-party-preferred vote, applying my estimate of the Bradfield 2PP, the gap between election …Queensland, Australia · Queensland Read Article

How the swing was distributed, and how the pendulum performed

Now that we have a complete two-party-preferred vote for all of Australia, we can look at the distribution of seat margins and swings across the country. For this post, I have produced a number of charts which show the distribution of seats by two-party-preferred result, and also by two-party-preferred swing. I also attempt to chart out the two-candidate-preferred swings in non-classic seats, or at least those which have a valid swing compared t…Australia · Australia Read Article

How seats changed relative to Australia in 2025

I’ve previously posted a number of times before about the dataset I have compiled of election results since 2004, adjusted for 2025 electoral boundaries. Most recently, prior to the election, I specifically did a comparison of the 2007 and 2022 electoral map: two elections with similar two-party-preferred votes and a similar number of seats with a two-party-preferred majority for each major party. Unfortunately there is no clear comparison for t…Australia · Australia Read Article

Why the Liberals should accept defeat in Bradfield

100% Left coverage: 2 sources

After one of the closest electoral contests in Australian history, the party faces a diabolical dilemma.New South Wales · New South Wales See the Story

The House-Senate vote difference

While there’s a lot of similarities in how Australians vote between the House and the Senate, they’ve never voted exactly the same. For a start, there are more options on the Senate ballot paper than the House ballot paper. Small parties will not run in all House seats (sometimes they run in very few) and thus can only attract Senate votes in many seats. This means the bigger parties have traditionally done better in the House, where they have l…Senate · Australia Read Article

No-Confidence Motion in Tasmanian Premier Succeeds

50% Left coverage: 18 sources

Tasmanians are expected to head to the polls for the second time in just over a year after a successful no-confidence vote in the premier.Asia · Hobart See the Story

Could There Be a Second Election in the Nail-Biter Seat of Bradfield?

67% Center coverage: 3 sources

A recount of votes in the north shore seat may not settle who will represent it in Canberra as a Liberal and an independent brace for a rematch.Vote Recount · New South Wales See the Story

Are seats getting closer? Maybe not

We are still waiting for the final 2PP figures – they’ve finished in 149 seats and have even started the 2PP count in Bradfield now – but we now have basically all of the two-candidate-preferred figures in. We may not know the final Bradfield outcome, but for the purposes of today’s post it is close enough. So for today’s post I wanted to look at the historical record for how a few key statistics are changing: what share of the primary vote is w…Australia · Australia Read Article

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