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WH study warns 9 million Americans could lose health insurance in 'major' recession if Trump budget bill fails

  • The White House released a study on May 17, 2025, warning that 8.2 to 9.2 million Americans could lose health insurance during a major recession if President Trump's budget bill fails to pass.
  • The warning follows concerns that the 'big, beautiful bill' faces divisions among Republicans and a self-imposed Memorial Day deadline amid razor-thin control of the House.
  • The study projects that unemployment may increase by four percentage points, leading to around 6.5 million lost jobs. Among those affected, roughly 60% had employer-sponsored health insurance, which means about 3.9 million individuals could lose their coverage.
  • The White House projects Medicaid and ACA enrollment could drop by 10%, enrollment could fall 15%, and warns the scenario is a 'very unlikely but plausible worse case'.
  • Failure to pass the bill may increase the uninsured population to 36 million, disproportionately affecting gig workers, early retirees, and non-citizens, with broad implications for health coverage stability.
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Newsweek broke the news in United States on Monday, May 12, 2025.
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