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Dollar Dips Amid Fed Rate Cut Speculation and Geopolitical Talks

July's Producer Price Index rose 0.9%, the largest monthly gain since June 2022, prompting traders to cut Federal Reserve rate-cut expectations for September, with odds falling to 85%.

  • After PPI surged 0.9% in July, U.S. Treasuries fell and yields increased as traders pared bets on a Fed rate cut, sending the two-year yield to 3.73%.
  • Before the PPI data, traders had piled into bets on a 50-basis-point September rate cut after benign CPI readings and remarks from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent about lowering borrowing costs by up to 1.5 percentage points.
  • The PPI report showed producer prices surged 0.9% in July, the largest since June 2022, with services costs increased 1.1%.
  • Markets adjusted rate-cut probabilities as interest-rate swaps signalled the odds of a September 50 basis point cut fell to around 85 from over 100.
  • Ahead of the Sep 16–17 meeting, Fed officials are weighing mixed signals, and investors watch Jackson Hole where Jerome Powell will speak later this month.
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FXStreet broke the news in on Thursday, August 14, 2025.
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