US EditionUS Growth Expected to Slow in Tomorrow’s Q1 GDP Report
- The U.S. economy is set to grow at an annualized real rate of 0.8% in Q1 2025, down from 2.4% in Q4 2024.
- This slowdown follows tariff announcements through early April and ongoing trade policy uncertainty that have dampened business activity.
- Estimates vary, with models forecasting growth between-1.5% and 0.4%, while retail sales rose and inflation moderated modestly in early 2025.
- Economists highlight risks: Yale’s Budget Lab expects 0.5 percentage points less growth in 2025, recession odds near 45%, and Apollo’s Torsten Slok cites a 90% probability of a downturn brewing.
- If the Q1 slowdown confirms, it will reinforce concerns about trade tensions’ economic impact and elevated recession risks amid mixed signals from consumer spending and job growth.
11 Articles
11 Articles
First-Quarter GDP Preview: What to Expect for Economic Growth
The Bureau of Economic Analysis will release its first-quarter GDP report on April 30. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow Model, a widely watched estimate, suggests the growth rate was negative 0.4 percent after adjusting for gold imports and exports. If accurate, this would represent a decline from the previous quarter’s 2.4 percent expansion, and the first contraction since the first quarter of 2022. Meanwhile, the market’s consensus…
Global Growth Under Pressure - Cambridgeshire Chambers of Commerce
GBP The UK economy is projected to experience a significant slowdown over the next two years, largely due to the impact of tariff uncertainty , which has adversely affected consumer spending and business investment. This outlook is supported by the EY Item Club, a prominent UK economic forecasting group and sponsored by the major accountancy firm EY, which has reported a record low confidence in the British economy. Their latest forecast predict…
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US economy expected to have slowed sharply at start of Trump's 2nd term
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US Dollar Index advances to near 99.50 as US yields rebound ahead of Core PCE data
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Betting markets’ Q1 US GDP forecast flips negative amid tariff turmoil
Bettors on prediction platforms Polymarket and Kalshi are flipping bearish on the US economy. As of April 29, both platforms are predicting that the US will log an economic contraction during the first quarter of 2025 in an upcoming economic data release. The US has logged positive growth figures every quarter since 2022, and a reversal in that trend could mark the start of a recession.The pessimistic outlook marks a stark sentiment shift for pr…
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