US EditionUkraine stares down the barrel of population collapse
Ukraine's population fell 15% since 2022 due to war deaths, low births, and displacement, with forecasts projecting as low as 25 million by 2051, per the National Academy of Sciences.
- Ukraine's population has plunged from around 42 million to below 36 million since February 2022, driven by war and emigration, according to the demography institute at Ukraine's National Academy of Sciences.
- Mass displacement compounds the toll, with over 14 million Ukrainians displaced, and 2024 deaths outpaced births by 495,000 to 176,600, according to the International Organization for Migration and CIA World Factbook.
- Economic forecasts show deep labour gaps, and the Vienna Institute warns of a 25% workforce decline by 2040 while Zelenskyy's administration’s 2025 strategy targets 34 million population, though CEPA and analyst Vasyl Shukyurov caution it could bottom at 29 million.
- Daily life shows visible signs—silent Hoshcha maternity ward and hospitals reporting high mortality ratios, while Kyiv tech hubs dim and grassroots apps like remote-work and virtual fertility counselling emerge as lifelines.
- Projection models point to steep long-term declines, noting the institute projects 25 million by 2051 while United Nations long-term population scenarios place Ukraine as low as 15.3 million by 2100, and policy experts warn of halving population and economic hollowing.
9 Articles
9 Articles
The war in Ukraine has dramatic consequences for the population. The birth rate sinks to the groundless, millions flee. Experts warn of a demographic collapse that could shape the country sustainably.
According to the CIA World Factbook's 2024 estimates, Ukraine has both the highest mortality rate and the lowest birth rate in the world
Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, the official statistics office has stopped publishing population figures. Expert estimates range from 28 to 37.9 million people (including temporarily occupied territories). So what is the actual population, and how has the country's demographic landscape changed?
Due to the war, the drop in the birth rate and emigration, the population of Ukraine has decreased to 36 million and may fall to 25 million by 2051 - the Government has developed a strategy for the return of 4.5 million workers TSN.ua (news 1+1)
Coverage Details
Bias Distribution
- 50% of the sources are Center, 50% of the sources lean Right
Factuality
To view factuality data please Upgrade to Premium
