Polar Vortex Strengthens over Arctic, Very Strong El Niño Supports Mid-Winter Weakening Signal
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6 Articles
Meteorologists closely observe the polar vortex. From January onwards, a rare scenario with frost and snow could become more likely.
A strong polar vortex began to form over the North Pole during September. However, some model projections suggest it will weaken in mid-winter, possibly due to El Niño. This could increase the likelihood of significant weather fluctuations and polar air intrusions into lower latitudes.
The forecasts point to a weakening between January and February 2027, possibly related to the strong episode of El Niño. The scenario could favor cold air entrances, although it does not allow to anticipate a wave of concrete cold.
Will Europe feel the cold snap again this winter? Until a few weeks ago, it seemed that the matter was clear. Weather models are currently predicting a mild winter.
It forms over the North Pole and is responsible for winter here as well. The polar vortex is beginning to form and is gaining strength. It appears that it will be stronger initially, only to dissipate by mid-winter. This reduces the chances of a repeat of last year's situation. We will likely have to wait longer for greater frosts and heavier precipitation.
Polar vortex strengthens over Arctic, very strong El Niño supports mid-winter weakening signal
The Northern Hemisphere polar vortex is forming normally over the Arctic and was stronger than average by NASA’s wind diagnostic in mid-September 2026. The developing very strong El Niño could favor atmospheric wave patterns that weaken the vortex later in winter, with seasonal guidance showing a possible weakening during January and February 2027. Source
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