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Rip up the Glut Forecasts - Mideast Oil Shock Signals Supply Crunch

The U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran led to a near-complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz, stranding 19.5 million barrels per day of oil and refined fuels, about 20% of global consumption.

  • On February 28, the joint U.S.-Israel aerial bombing campaign began, leading to a near-complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz that stranded nearly 15 million bpd of crude and 4.5 million bpd of refined fuels in the Gulf.
  • Iranian missile and drone strikes hit Gulf states and energy infrastructure, forcing closure of Qatar's largest LNG facility and Saudi Arabia's largest oil refinery.
  • Brent crude jumped above $90 a barrel on Friday, gaining nearly 30%, while Iraq cut nearly 1.5 million bpd at the Rumaila oil field amid halted exports.
  • Rising storage and shutdown risks point to pressure on producers and governments to tap strategic petroleum reserves, including the U.S. SPR holding more than 400 million barrels.
  • Offsetting the outage would require more than 100 million barrels from global storage in a week, while Russian floating storage fell to 4.5 million barrels by March 6 and independent Chinese refiners likely absorb Iranian barrels.
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16 Articles

Center

In the face of the blockade of the Strait of Hormus and targeted Iranian attacks on refineries in the Gulf States, there is growing concern for oil supply. Is the market facing the next price shock?

·Bonn, Germany
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Left

Chaos in the oil market will increase next week as a result of the war in the Middle East, and analysts expect a complete halt in production in Iran, a continued blockade of the Strait of Ormuz and an increase in the scale of mutual strikes by the parties, which will prolong the interruption in the supply of oil from the countries of the region and will be more likely to raise the price of raw materials above $100 per barrel, with the result of …

·Riga, Latvia
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Reuters broke the news in United Kingdom on Friday, March 6, 2026.
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