US EditionSuspicious Polymarket Bets Netted $663K Before Iran Ceasefire
- On Tuesday at 19:45 GMT, investors sold a combined 8,600 lots of Brent and WTI crude futures, representing approximately $950 million in bets on falling oil prices.
- Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran at 22:30 GMT on Tuesday, stepping back from prior threats and knocking crude futures down 15% to below $100 a barrel at Wednesday's market open.
- A similar pattern occurred on March 23, when investors sold $500 million in oil futures just 15 minutes before Trump delayed attacks on Iran's energy infrastructure, triggering a 15% crude price drop.
- Large orders are rarely executed after settlement, which occurs Monday to Friday at 1830 GMT; traders typically use algorithmic strategies to avoid impacting prices with outsized bets.
- Trading volumes have hit record highs above 1 million lots in recent weeks as volatility has exploded since the war began, complicating hedging and price discovery for market participants.
77 Articles
77 Articles
More new accounts on the Polymarket Prediction platform have been made, Tuesday, extremely timely opinions on the conclusion of an ambiguity between the US and Iran, recording hundreds of thousands of dollars' profits, reports The Guardian. The Parises have been made just a few hours before US President Donald Trump announced the closing agreement...
They registered on the platform almost at the end of the expiry of Trump's ultimatum all'Iran and made very specific and timely bets, anticipating by a few minutes the announcement of the U.S. President. Yet there were few signs that they were leaning for an imminent agreement, with the probability of a truce estimated at 35%. Thus about fifty new accounts have earned hundreds of thousands of dollars on the controversial site of online predictio…
Despite Trump's threat that "an entire civilization will die," a number of new accounts have been betting on a ceasefire between the US and Iran, raising questions again about whether people are using inside information to make big money on betting sites.
On Tuesday, April 7, 2026, the surprise announcement of a ceasefire between the United States and Iran allowed about 50 new accounts on the Polymarket platform to pack hundreds of thousands of dollars....
Insider Trading Suspected in Polymarket Ceasefire Bets
A group of new accounts on the prediction market Polymarket made highly specific, well-timed bets on whether the US and Iran would reach a ceasefire on April 7, resulting in hundreds of thousands of dollars in profits for these new customers. These bets were made even though, in the hours...
Coverage Details
Bias Distribution
- 58% of the sources are Center
Factuality
To view factuality data please Upgrade to Premium
