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Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
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Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
Millie Marconi at X: A government-funded tournament put thousands of ordinary people against CIA intelligence analysts in a 4-year contest to predict world events, and the amateurs won so decisively that the CIA had to fundamentally rethink how it forecasts the future. The professor who ran the tournament is Philip Tetlock. He teaches at Wharton. Daniel Kahneman called the book he wrote about the result the most important decision-making book si…
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