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What a "Customs War" with the United States Would Mean - Evidence Network

German and US officials struggle over trade relations amid a customs conflict with widespread economic risks identified in 2025.
The Familienbetrieb Foundation commissioned a study by WIFO and the Kiel Institute to assess escalation scenarios and quantify potential losses.
The study predicts a 43 percent drop in German exports to the US, with the pharmaceutical, automotive, and mechanical sectors suffering large production declines.
Key figures include a 0.2 percent GDP contraction in Germany, an 8.7 percent pharmaceutical production decline, and Cologne losing 4.9 billion euros in output.
The findings imply severe regional and sectoral damage unless trade talks succeed, while some sectors like finance and telecommunications might benefit during ongoing uncertainties.

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ga.de

Center

Study Examines Possible Scenarios: Bonn and Cologne Would Be Germany's Biggest Losers of a Customs War

The regional district of Cologne, to which Bonn also belongs, would suffer particularly from a customs war with the USA. Why this is so – and what a trade deal would mean for the region.

2 days ago

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Deutschlandfunk

Center

Study - Customs Dispute Would Hit German Regions Differently

According to a study, a trade war with high tariffs between Europe and the US would put a particular strain on the German economy in some regions.

2 days ago·Germany

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Spiegel

Lean Left

(S+) Donald Trump's Customs Policy: Study Shows Regional Impacts on Hamburg and Cologne

A customs war with the USA would hit Germany hard: cities such as Hamburg and Cologne would have to face billions of losses. A new study provides an overview of the extent to which individual regions are affected for the first time.

2 days ago·Germany

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hna.de

+11 Reposted by 11 other sources

Center

Study: What a "Customs War" with the US Would Mean

How does the customs conflict with the US continue? The situation is confusing. A study highlights what an escalation would mean.

2 days ago

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evidencenetwork.ca

What a "customs war" with the United States would mean - Evidence Network

While politics struggles with the USA for a trade deal, a study shows the concrete consequences of the customs conflict for the individual industries and ...

2 days ago

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berliner-sonntagsblatt.de

Trump's Tariffs Would Cost Metropolitan Regions Billions

A tariff war between Europe and the US would place a heavy burden on the German economy and trigger significant regional disruption. This is the conclusion of a study by economists led by Viennese economics professor Gabriel Felbermayr for the Foundation for Family Businesses, reported on by "Der Spiegel." The study analyzes various scenarios of the European-American trade conflict. An escalation of the dispute would reduce Germany's economic ou…

2 days ago

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