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Stress on San Andreas Fault reaches highest levels in 1,000 years as scientists await next ‘major rupture’
Researchers say stress on the San Andreas and San Jacinto faults has reached the highest levels in 1,000 years, raising the risk of a larger rupture.
A new study published in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth reveals that tectonic stress along the San Andreas and San Jacinto faults in Southern California has reached its highest level in 1,000 years.
More than 160 years have elapsed since the region's last major rupture, leaving the system in a "critically loaded state" that scientists warn could precede a massive, combined seismic event.
The Cajon Pass acts as an "earthquake gate" that may either connect or separate the two faults during a rupture, potentially triggering a joint event releasing significantly more energy than an independent quake.
Such a joint rupture threatens heavily populated corridors including Los Angeles, San Bernardino, Riverside, and the Coachella Valley, where researchers emphasize the need for improved infrastructure planning and emergency preparedness.
Lead author Liliane Burkhard emphasized this is "not a prediction of when an earthquake will happen," but rather a tool to help scientists better understand simultaneous rupture risks facing millions of people globally.