Scientists Say Both Best and Worst Climate Warming Scenarios Are No Longer Likely
Scientists cut the top warming estimate to 3.5 degrees Celsius as cleaner energy and weaker fossil-fuel growth make earlier extremes less likely.
- An international team of climate modelers revised the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change worst-case scenario, deeming the extreme 4.5°C pathway implausible and setting a new 2100 upper-bound estimate at about 3.5°C.
- Developed in 2011, the previous RCP8.5 scenario relied on coal-heavy projections that became outdated as renewable energy costs dropped 90% over 15 years, prompting researchers to replace the single extreme pathway with seven more realistic models.
- Scientists emphasize this revision reflects a 'success story' in slowing warming rather than invalidating climate science, though they caution that significant impacts including rising seas and extreme weather remain likely under updated scenarios.
- President Donald Trump declared 'GOOD RIDDANCE!' on Truth Social, claiming the revision proves prior projections were 'Climate Alarmism nonsense' and a 'GREEN NEW SCAM,' while asserting his administration is based on 'TRUTH, SCIENCE, and FACT!'.
- Researchers warn that despite the lower upper bound, the world remains on track to surpass the 1.5°C limit set by the 2015 Paris Agreement, with experts stressing the update is not a reason for complacency.
116 Articles
116 Articles
Climate scientists reject highest emission, highest warming climate scenario
Read: 4 min Climate scientists are no longer using the highest emission, highest warming scenario in their analysis for the upcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report. That report is considered a consensus document that drives global discussion and policy around climate change. Scientists say the scenario, known as RCP8.5, is no longer a plausible projection of future warming. That scenario projected about four to five degrees Ce…
How should Germany deal with climate protection after the extreme scenario RCP 8.5 by researchers of the World Climate Council be classified as "unplausible" and ... The post "Do not let down": CDU-Man sees the retreat of the World Climate Council scenario as a success of climate protection appeared first on Apollo News.
Experts sort out the worst possible emission scenario so far – it is simply no longer plausible. A success story. But climate deniers are now trying to reinterpret it.
»The Apocalypse Is Out«: With this spin, climate skeptics from Donald Trump to AfD scandalize a normal update of climate scenarios. And sell everyone for stupid.
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