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SBI economists halve December RBI rate hike forecast to 25 bps on easing rupee pressure, foreign inflows

SBI Research said improved foreign inflows and easing rupee pressure reduced the odds of a larger 50-basis-point move.

Summary by Times of India
State Bank of India has revised its estimate for the upcoming Reserve Bank of India rate hike. The new projection suggests a 0.25 percent increase instead of a previously expected 0.50 percent. This adjustment follows improvements in external conditions and a revival in foreign fund inflows. Analysts note that inflation is projected to remain above 6 percent in November before easing.

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The Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee (RBI-MPC) may raise the repo rate by 0.25 percent (25 basis points) in its December meeting, according to a report. However, the report ruled out a 0.50 percent increase. SBI Research stated in the report that inflation, the rupee, and global pressures are showing signs of abating. While a 0.50 percent repo rate increase is unlikely, it could increase to 5.50 percent to 5.75 percent. Retail i…

If you have a home, car, or personal loan, the coming months could be tough on your pocket. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may decide to raise the repo rate again in December. However, this time, the interest rate increase is likely to be 25 basis points instead of 50 basis points.

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Times of India broke the news in India on Thursday, November 12, 2026.
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