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Prison population in England and Wales to hit 100,000 'later than expected', figures show

The Ministry of Justice cites rising police charges, prosecutions, and offender recalls as key drivers for the projected prison population increase to 100,600 by 2030.

  • On Thursday, the Ministry of Justice published projections showing the prison population in England and Wales will be between 98,000 and 103,600 by March 2030, with a central estimate of 100,600.
  • Because police charging and court caseloads increased, the MoJ reported shifts in projections, citing a continued rise in police charges and prosecutions, more cases coming to court, and thousands of releases since September last year.
  • At the start of this month there were 87,063 prisoners in England and Wales, with 91 accidental releases between April 1 and October 31, and 12 more in the last month, MoJ data shows.
  • The Sentencing Bill is excluded from the latest modelled estimates as its impact is not yet in force, and Justice Secretary David Lammy's courts overhaul announcement is also unconsidered; projections note a possible 125,000 crown court backlog by the end of this Parliament.
  • The department warns that assumptions about courts and sentencing will alter outcomes, noting last year's MoJ previous forecasts ranged 95,700–105,200 with a 100,800 central estimate and a 2,400 difference by September 2028.
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Prison population set to hit 100,000 a year later than projected – figures

Newly published estimates project the rise in the number of prisoners will reach between 98,000 and 103,6000 by March 2030.

·London, United Kingdom
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Nation.Cymru broke the news in Wales, United Kingdom on Thursday, December 4, 2025.
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