Prediction is Hard, Especially about Confidence Levels • Stimson Center

Prediction is Hard, Especially about Confidence Levels • Stimson Center

As Jeffrey Friedman shows in a recent Texas National Security Review article, experts are often right but almost always overconfident in their predictions. What does this mean for the national security community? And how can experts address this systemic problem? Chris laments the Pentagon’s in-person gathering of military leaders and Melanie condemns misguided economic policymaking, […] The post Prediction is Hard, Especially about Confidence L…