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Fed Rate-Cut Doubts Rise as Middle East Conflict Drives up Energy Prices
Oil prices rose over 13% due to Middle East tensions, causing market odds for a Fed rate cut by June to fall to 35%, traders said.
- Following weekend air strikes on Tehran, markets saw fierce selling of rate futures and Treasury securities for a second day, eroding expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts before September.
- With the Strait of Hormuz closed to traffic and 20% of world crude supply halted, U.S. oil prices surged more than 13% since Friday, while WTI crude climbed roughly 7%–8% after the strikes.
- The futures market priced the odds to about 35% for a June cut, with traders also seeing a 55% chance of a July cut and about a 56% chance of a second cut by December.
- Higher-for-Longer rates translated into stronger reserve yields for Circle , stablecoin issuer, as analysts Dan Dolev and Alexander Jenkins estimated about 1% revenue growth for 2026 and 2027.
- Retail gasoline prices jumped 10 cents a gallon in the last 24 hours, according to AAA, while bitcoin and crypto markets showed early volatility before rising roughly 5%.
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13 Articles
13 Articles
·United Kingdom
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The US and Israeli attacks on Iran put the Riksbank in a tricky situation. This is according to Mattias Persson, chief economist at Swedbank with a long history at the Riksbank. Two completely opposite scenarios are possible.
·Stockholm, Sweden
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Coverage Details
Total News Sources13
Leaning Left2Leaning Right2Center3Last UpdatedBias Distribution43% Center
Bias Distribution
- 43% of the sources are Center
43% Center
L 29%
C 43%
R 28%
Factuality
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