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Expectations For Fed Rate Hikes Dropped After The Latest Inflation Red. They Are Spiking Again Over The War
Markets now see an 82% chance of a September increase as Brent crude hits $100 and U.S. jobless claims fall to 187,000.
On Thursday, market expectations for a September Federal Reserve rate hike surged as global crude benchmark Brent hit $100 a barrel, with Fed funds futures pricing in roughly 82% likelihood of borrowing costs increasing.
Initial jobless claims dropped to 187,000 in the week ended July 18, the Labor Department reported, while gasoline prices reached $4 per gallon this week, fueling inflation concerns as energy costs climb.
Stock markets declined sharply midday Thursday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbling more than 600 points and the Nasdaq Composite shedding nearly 3% amid rising Treasury yields and rate expectations.
Investment strategist Ross Mayfield at Baird described September as a "live" meeting for the Fed, offering "a readthrough on what the Fed might do next" ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee gathering on July 29th.
Despite current market speculation, FactSet consensus forecasts indicate the Federal Reserve will not hike rates this year, though economists anticipate the central bank may lower borrowing costs by half a percentage point in 2027.