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Expectations For Fed Rate Hikes Dropped After The Latest Inflation Red. They Are Spiking Again Over The War

Markets now see an 82% chance of a September increase as Brent crude hits $100 and U.S. jobless claims fall to 187,000.

  • On Thursday, market expectations for a September Federal Reserve rate hike surged as global crude benchmark Brent hit $100 a barrel, with Fed funds futures pricing in roughly 82% likelihood of borrowing costs increasing.
  • Initial jobless claims dropped to 187,000 in the week ended July 18, the Labor Department reported, while gasoline prices reached $4 per gallon this week, fueling inflation concerns as energy costs climb.
  • Stock markets declined sharply midday Thursday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbling more than 600 points and the Nasdaq Composite shedding nearly 3% amid rising Treasury yields and rate expectations.
  • Investment strategist Ross Mayfield at Baird described September as a "live" meeting for the Fed, offering "a readthrough on what the Fed might do next" ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee gathering on July 29th.
  • Despite current market speculation, FactSet consensus forecasts indicate the Federal Reserve will not hike rates this year, though economists anticipate the central bank may lower borrowing costs by half a percentage point in 2027.
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Odds of Federal Reserve rate hike surge as oil prices rip higher

Investors are increasingly readying for the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates in September.

·Englewood Cliffs, United States
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Zero Hedge broke the news in Sofia, Bulgaria on Wednesday, July 22, 2026.
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