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Lula, Bolsonaro neck-and-neck in Brazil runoff polls ahead of election

The 2-point margin of error leaves the race statistically tied as Lula and Bolsonaro trade narrow leads before the October vote.

  • On Monday, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula regained a slim lead over Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in a simulated runoff for next month's election, with the BTG Pactual and Nexus poll showing Lula at 47% to Bolsonaro's 46%.
  • A separate Datafolha survey released Friday showed the contest neck and neck, while a Quaest poll published later Monday found Bolsonaro ahead 42 percent to 40 percent, leaving the race statistically tied within the margin of error.
  • In a first-round scenario, Lula would lead with 42% of the votes, followed by Bolsonaro at 37%, with an October 25 runoff triggered if no candidate wins more than 50% on October 4.
  • Federal police are probing Bolsonaro over allegations of money-laundering and corruption involving Banco Master owner Daniel Vorcaro, as a crisis inside the Supreme Court clouds the October vote.
  • Corruption allegations against one of Lula's sons and a slowing economy have weighed on his re-election bid in recent weeks, though the candidate has denied wrongdoing as the campaign approaches October.
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41 Articles

Lean Right

Two polls published yesterday place the president and senator with minimal differences within the margin of error

·Vicente López, Argentina
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Lean Right

President Lula and Bolsonaro tie for Brazil's elections, while a crisis in the Supreme shakes the electoral campaign.

·Monterrey, Mexico
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Lean Right

Lula regained a close advantage over former President Jair Bolsonaro's eldest son in a BTG Pactual/Nexus survey, while a separate poll from Quaest commissioned by Globo showed that the legislator had a numerical advantage for the first time.

·Las Condes, Chile
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(Mexico City = Yonhap News) Correspondent Song Gwang-ho = In the Brazilian presidential election to be held next month, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and right-wing Flávio Bolsonaro ...

·Seoul, Korea (the Republic of)
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Bias Distribution

  • 62% of the sources lean Right
62% Right

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El Cronista broke the news in Buenos Aires, Argentina on Sunday, September 13, 2026.
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