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Labour Expects to Lose By-election After Burnham Blocked, Say Insiders

Labour insiders accept likely defeat as blocking Andy Burnham risks losing Gorton & Denton seat to Reform UK or Greens, with 46% opposing the decision, YouGov found.

  • On February 26 the Labour Party faces a by-election in Gorton & Denton that senior figures privately concede they expect to lose after barring Andy Burnham to limit fallout.
  • Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer defended the decision to block Andy Burnham, saying a mayoral election would divert resources from May contests while Labour's National Executive Committee will set the shortlist on Tuesday.
  • YouGov polling shows weak public support for blocking Burnham, with just 16 per cent of Labour voters backing it, and national polls place Labour on 21 per cent behind Reform UK on 25 per cent.
  • At least 50 Labour MPs reportedly signed a letter criticising the ban, and Lord Hermer urged focus on government successes, while loyalist Labour MPs say only two MPs opposed it and eighty MPs are needed for a leadership challenge.
  • Rival parties are repositioning: the Greens aim at the pro-Gaza and Muslim vote while Reform attacks Starmer, and Andy Burnham has not ruled out another Westminster bid if given assurances.
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Bias Distribution

  • 67% of the sources are Center
67% Center

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The Times broke the news in United Kingdom on Monday, January 26, 2026.
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