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Labor holds Dunkley but slumps in two national polls; Liberals lead in Tasmania

Summary by Ground News
The Poll Bludger is projecting a final Labor margin of 52.6%-47.4, a 3.6% swing to the Liberals. This means Labor candidate Jodie Belyea will win the seat after a byelection was called in the wake of the death of former MP Peta Murphy. Labor holding Dunkley will be a big relief for the party, but it does not predict the next election result. It's still likely over a year until the next federal election. What happens in the polls over that time is far more important than the result of this byelection.

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Labor holds Dunkley but slumps in two national polls; Liberals lead in Tasmania

With all ordinary booths in Dunkley having primary vote counts and 51% of enrolled votes counted, The Poll Bludger is projecting a final Labor margin of 52.6–47.4, a 3.6% swing to the Liberals. This means Labor candidate Jodie Belyea will win the seat after a byelection was called in the wake of the death of former MP Peta Murphy. There have also been some postals and pre-poll votes included. The Poll Bludger’s Labor win probability is 99%. Thi…

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The Conversation broke the news in on Saturday, March 2, 2024.
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