Kalshi puts Paxton odds in Texas GOP primary at 95 percent
Kalshi says Paxton has a 95.6% chance to win after Trump backed him and polls showed him ahead of Cornyn.
- As of Sunday afternoon, prediction market Kalshi gave Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton a 95.6 percent chance of winning Tuesday's Republican Senate runoff against incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in the Lone Star State.
- Monday morning's market update showed Paxton at 63.7 percent odds, a dramatic shift driven by a University of Houston poll finding him ahead 48 percent to 45 percent, plus President Trump's endorsement calling Paxton a 'true MAGA warrior.'
- Trump highlighted Paxton's loyalty, noting the attorney general filed litigation supporting the president's 2020 election efforts while Cornyn said in 2023 that Trump's time has passed; Paxton then redirected TV ad spending to focus on defeating Democratic nominee state Rep. James Talarico.
- With Cornyn's odds at just 4.4 percent, the incumbent told host Chris Stirewalt on NewsNation's The Hill he expected to be the nominee, yet on Friday in Corpus Christi he warned Paxton would be an 'albatross around the neck of all of our candidates' if nominated.
- Texas has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since Lloyd Bentsen in 1988, positioning the GOP nominee as heavy favorite in November; however, Senate Republicans fear Paxton's candidacy could break that streak, as his unity calls clash with Cornyn's escalating criticism.
6 Articles
6 Articles
Kalshi, Polymarket Put Real-Time Odds Up Against Traditional Polling
Kalshi and Polymarket are putting real-time market odds in direct comparison with traditional polling as Texas Republicans head into Tuesday’s runoff elections. The platforms give political observers a live look at what traders expect to happen in major races. Traditional polls ask selected voters whom they support at a fixed point in time. Prediction markets show prices that move as traders respond to polling, endorsements, turnout expectations…
BREAKING: Trump Obliterates ‘Disloyal’ Cornyn Ahead Of Paxton’s Surge
Facing off in a high-stakes primary, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton has gained significant momentum with President Trump’s recent endorsement. Trump, known for his plainspoken rhetoric, openly criticized incumbent Senator John Cornyn, labeling him a “VERY disloyal” figure. With the election drawing near, this declaration comes at a pivotal moment. Neither candidate achieved a majority in the March primary, which sets the stage for the upcomin…
Kalshi puts Paxton odds in Texas GOP primary at 95 percent
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) has a greater than 95 percent chance of defeating incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) in the Lone Star State’s Senate GOP runoff, according to the prediction market Kalshi. As of Sunday afternoon, Paxton had a 95.6 percent chance of winning the runoff, which will be decided on Tuesday after...
Texas Political Volume at Kalshi Focusing on Cornyn-Paxton Runoff
As May 26 races for federal and state positions heat up in Texas, the trading action at Kalshi has picked up as well. Markets covering several partisan Texas primaries have drawn more than $24.2 million in cumulative volume. While markets for November’s general elections are available as well, most of the volume has landed on a handful of primary runoffs. The markets are indicating a runaway favorite in perhaps the most important federal race be…
Coverage Details
Bias Distribution
- 60% of the sources lean Right
Factuality
To view factuality data please Upgrade to Premium
